25 januari 2018
The European Commission is the winner of Brexit Phase 1
The second phase of Brexit negotiations is about to start. I thought it was perhaps a good moment to reflect on the negotiation process applied in Phase 1. Will Barnier also dominate Phase 2?
By Leo Wielstra
Initially, the Brexit complexity was seen as extremely challenging. One of the most difficult negotiations of this century. 27 countries that needed to be unified, very tight deadlines, and a myriad of themes that needed resolution. It seems almost a miracle that a deal was reached…
What did Europe do well? I mention success factors in order of importance.
Very bad consequences of a No-Deal scenario for the United Kingdom
Article 50 dictates that the departing country will return to WTO ruling, in case no deal is reached within 2 years. Statements from Prime Minister May to rather have no deal than a bad deal indicate a lack of proper advice. With these consequences it will be crucial for all parties to reach a deal before the deadline. Ironically article 50 was written by a British diplomat…
From the start: Process lead by Barnier on time and sequence
Barnier has been visiting all 27 capitals since October 1 2016 to unify all 27 member countries on the four core European values and the high level process flow: only after invoking article 50 by the United Kingdom negotiations would start about leaving the EU; and only after completing these, negotiations could start about the future relationship. In addition, Barnier shortened the timelines: instead of 2 years as mentioned by article 50, much less time would be available because of upfront approval by the European Council as well as the final approval by the European Parliament. In January 2017 he added the required approvals by national parliaments.
A quick appointment of the Chief Negotiator
The Brexit referendum took place on June 23rd 2016. On July 13th Theresa May presented her team, with David Davis as her chief negotiator for the UK. On July 27th Michel Barnier was announced as the Chief Negotiator by the European Commission. His team was announced on October 1st.
An undivided European position on the four core values
Free movement of persons, goods, services and capital. Those are the four freedoms of the European Union. And the country that leaves the EU, should retain a worse position than the remaining member states. Worse enough to scare other countries from doing the same. There has not been any deviation from this position by any of the 27 countries. Was this the minimum position where all interests aligned?
Limitation to 3 main topics
The original EU documents mentioned quite a variety of topics to negotiate: From Gibraltar to the military bases of the United Kingdom on the island of Cyprus. In the end, only three topics remained as a condition for the transition to the next Phase: rights of civilians, Ireland, and the financial commitments. A limitation of scope makes a negotiation much less complicated.
Conclusions for Phase 2
We cannot assume Phase 2 to proceed like Phase 1. Not reaching an agreement on financials has consequences for all 27 countries. The same is true for civil rights. No wonder that the European position remained united.
However, phase 2 covers the future relationship with the United Kingdom. The North Sea countries have different interests compared to the Eastern European countries. It will be quite a tour the force for Barnier to find the position where all countries are unified, and to maintain unity. And of course, what if key players change…